The new Subjective Crop Forecast, released on Thursday (29) by the Department of Rural Economy (Deral), of the State Secretariat for Agriculture and Supply (Seab), shows that grain production in Paraná in the 2022/2023 cycle should generate 46.6 million tons in an area of 10.85 million hectares.
If confirmed, production will represent a 37% increase in volume compared to the 2021/2022 harvest, which generated 34.1 million tons and was influenced by climate adversities. The area is similar to the previous harvest, when farmers from Paraná planted 11 million hectares.
The report confirms the soybean harvest record, with 22.45 million tons in an area of 5.78 million hectares. The volume is 80% higher than that produced in the 2021/2022 harvest, which reached 12.45 million tons. Despite the reduction in the estimate for the second corn crop, from 14 million to 13.8 million tons, the cereal has good productivity.
The evaluations of Deral technicians this month also show the good performance of winter cereals. In sum, there are 5.54 million tons, with emphasis on wheat, which will have 4.56 million tons of this total, a production 30% higher than in the previous harvest, and barley, whose volume may reach 382 thousand tons in this harvest, 14% higher than in the 2021/2022 harvest.
In general, the State should have a good harvest, according to the head of Deral, Marcelo Garrido. “We have a good picture in Paraná at the moment, with good productivity in most crops”, he says.
SOY – The numbers point to a record production of 22.45 million tons of soy in Paraná. However, the marketing of the crop remains slow. Historically, until June, sales were around 70%. In this harvest, however, the percentage reached 51%, according to Deral analyst Edmar Gervásio.
“The later harvest of the crop, along with difficulties in marketing, lower prices and overproduction, justify this slower marketing”, he explains. Last week, the price paid to soybean producers for a 60kg bag was R$ 120.13, on average. In the previous week, the average was R$ 120.98.
CORN – The expected production in the second corn crop in Paraná reduced 209 thousand tons in relation to the initial expectation. The forecast now is that the State will harvest 13.8 million tons. The area planted in this harvest is 2.4 million hectares, 12% smaller than the area of the 2021/2022 harvest. According to Deral, rainfall below expectations in much of Paraná, along with pests in part of the crops, are the main reasons for the reduction. If compared to the previous cycle, of 13.3 million tons, the estimated volume is 4% higher.
On the market, cereal prices showed a reaction, registering an increase of 8% last week when compared to the immediately previous week. Producers even received R$ 48.98 for a 60 kg bag. “However, the current price is still almost 40% lower than the prices practiced in June 2022”, says Gervásio.
BEANS – The second crop of beans occupies an area of 292 thousand hectares and, according to the latest survey carried out by technicians, production in Paraná is estimated at 506 thousand tons. This estimate, if confirmed, will be 11% lower than last year, concluded with 570.2 thousand tons. The cultivation area is also smaller. In the 2021/2022 cycle, beans occupied 342.9 thousand hectares. Now, the estimate is 291.6 thousand hectares.
The current crop harvest is heading towards closure, with 81% of the total area. The weather has favored field work at this stage of the crop, and has ensured excellent quality for the beans harvested. “It is believed that in the next two weeks this work will be concluded in all the producing regions of the State”, says the economist Methodio Groxko.
Last week, the producer received, on average, R$ 244.00 per bag of 60 kg for colored beans, with a reduction of 0.6% in relation to the previous period. Black beans were sold at R$ 208.00 per 60 kg bag, representing an increase of 4.5% compared to the previous week. The Economist from Deral points out, however, that while the price of colored beans continues to fall, the black type has shown a positive reaction in recent weeks and the amount currently received is the same as that of June last year.
WHEAT – The expectation for wheat production is still a full harvest, despite some specific problems observed in Northern Paraná. This week, planting progressed well with the dry weather after the rains, and reached 91% of the area of 1.39 million hectares, according to Deral agronomist Carlos Hugo Godinho. Production is estimated at 4.56 million tons, 30% more than in the previous harvest. The gain in area was 12%.
Wheat producer prices paid have yet to react. In the last week, farmers received, on average, R$66.17 per 60kg bag, similar to the previous week, R$66.38. “The values are still at the production cost limit”, he analyzes.
CASSAVA – Deral estimates a production of 3.29 million tons of cassava in an area of 135.6 thousand hectares. These expectations exceed the 2021/2021 harvest both in volume (12%) and in area (7%). In the last cycle, Paraná had harvested 2.95 million tons in 126.4 thousand hectares. Producers received, on average, R$ 757.22 per ton of cassava placed in the industry in the last week, a difference of 0.5% compared to the value of the previous week, R$ 761.02.
AGRICULTURAL BULLETIN – Deral also released this Thursday the Agricultural Conjuncture Bulletin. In addition to analyzing the production of the main grains, the document talks about dairy cattle, chicken production – with data from the Quarterly Slaughter Survey of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), fruit farming and fish farming.
Source: Agência de Notícias do Paraná
