In 2017, Brazil’s foreign sales to China, the United States, Argentina, the Netherlands and Japan totaled US $ 106 billion and accounted for half of the country’s shipments
The top five importing countries in Brazil account for half (49%) of our total exports. By 2017, domestic foreign sales grew for all these nations, except for the Netherlands.
However, adding the value exported to China, the United States, Argentina, the Netherlands and Japan, there is a 23.2% increase in shipments during the last year, compared to 2016, to US $ 106.5 billion, show data from the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services (Mdic).
According to experts, the trend is that these sales continue to expand, but at a slower pace, since with the recovery of the Brazilian economy, a larger share of domestic production will be directed to the domestic market. “The percentage of growth in exports will depend on the speed of growth in Brazil,” says FAAP economics course coordinator Paulo Dutra.
According to the country’s main trade partner, the US increased its purchases by 16% last year to US $ 26.8 billion. The most imported products were crude oil (+ 136.3%, US $ 2.7 billion) and semimanufactured iron and steel (+ 45%, US $ 1.8 billion). Dutra analyzes that the protectionist obstacles that US President Donald Trump has put to trade with China, Germany and Mexico may open up opportunities for Brazil’s industrialized products.
In 2017, manufacturing sales (+ 27.3% to US $ 5 billion), semimanufactured (+6.6, to US $ 15 billion) and industrialized (+ 11.1% to US $ 20 billion ) for the partner country.
On Trump’s policy, Carlos Poggio, a professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo (PUC-SP), says that the president has given priority to countries that have trade deficits with the United States, as was the case in Brazil for eight years (2009-2016). By 2017, however, the country had a surplus of US $ 2 billion with the United States.
For Dutra, the trend is that our sales to the North Americans continue to rise, in view of the warming of their economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a rise of 2.7% in the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The prospect is also of expanding sales to China and Japan, most of which are from agricultural commodities and minerals. According to Dutra, if US interest rates do not rise sharply, commodity prices are likely to remain stable or slightly up.
About the Japanese economy, Dutra points out that this has presented a growth above expectations. At the end of 2017, the Japanese government raised the GDP projection for the fiscal year 2017 from 1.5% to 1.9% and increased from 1.4% to 1.8% by 2018.
Sales from Brazil to Japan rose 14.3% to US $ 5.2 billion in 2017, with iron ore (+ 30.3% to US $ 1.4 billion) and chicken (+ 26% to US $ 907 million).
Chinese imports from Brazil rose 35.1% in 2017 to US $ 47.5 billion. The main products purchased from our country were soybeans (+ 41.2% to US $ 20.3 billion), iron ore (+ 42% to US $ 10.4 billion and crude oils (+ 88% , to US $ 7.4 billion.) Given that Brazil’s main trading partner should continue to grow at a rate of 6%, domestic exports are expected to remain warm. , 8% for Chinese GDP this year, after rising 6.9% last year
On Japan and the Netherlands, Poggio also points out that Brazilian trade with these countries is still very timid due to the lack of trade agreements. “The dynamics of our foreign trade is very determined in the conjuncture. There is not a considerable effort to conclude new agreements, “says Poggio.
Data from the Mdic show that national exports to the Netherlands fell last year (-10.3% to $ 9.2 billion). The most purchased products in the Netherlands were steel tubes (-13.8% to US $ 1 billion) and soybeans (-0.86% to US $ 1 billion.) For Dutra, this slowdown still reflects the slow recovery of the economies of the euro area.
Brazil’s third largest importer, Argentina, increased its purchases by 31.3% to US $ 17.6 billion, especially for passenger cars (+ 42% to US $ 4.7 billion) and vehicles of cargo (53%, to US $ 1.8 billion). According to Dutra, if the reforms of Argentine President Mauricio Macri succeed, the country’s economic growth potential tends to increase, which should benefit our exports to the neighboring country.