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China remains main contributor to Brazilian surplus

China was the main source of contribution to Brazil’s trade balance surplus, with imports of US $ 4.5 billion in July and US $ 21.9 billion in the year to July.

In the first seven months of the year, there was also a positive balance with South America, of US $ 3.2 billion, while with the European Union it was US $ 1.6 billion.

Although it presented a surplus in the trade balance with the United States in July, it was not enough to reverse the deficit of US $ 3.1 billion accumulated in the year until July.

The data are in the Foreign Trade Bulletin (Icomex) released today (14) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics, of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Ibre / FGV).

According to Ibre, China’s participation in Brazilian exports and imports surpassed that of the main partners in the year to July. In exports, China’s participation reached 34.1%. The European Union, which came in second, reached 13.4%.

According to Icomex, in the analysis of the share of trade by large regions, Asia accounts for almost 50% of Brazilian exports, Europe for 18.7%, North America, 12.6%, and Latin America, 11 ,2%.

“This result for Asia and China is not a cyclical issue. The rise of China’s participation that began in the mid-first decade of the 2000s has been continuous and accompanied by an increase in commodities in the export basket, ”says the Bulletin.

Trade balance

The balance of trade in July was US $ 8.1 billion, which is the largest in the historical series for the month of July. As a result, the accumulated surplus in the first seven months of the year reached US $ 30 billion.

According to the Brazilian Institute of Economics, of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Ibre / FGV), the sharp drop in imports, from 35.2% from July 2019 to July 2020, contributed to performance and not to an improvement in exports , which fell 2.9%.

Prices

The price and volume indices remained the same in June. The exported volume increased 14.2% in comparison to July 2020 with 2019, but the drop in prices of 15% caused a decrease in the exported value.

In imports, the two indexes decreased and the volume reduction reached 29.7%.

Icomex showed that the effect of oil platforms only impacted total imports and the difference was below 2 percentage points. However, the accumulated result for the year up to July indicated that the result with or without platforms cannot be disregarded, especially in imports. The reduction in imported volume rose from 4.3% to 7.5%.

Commodities

The favorable performance of exports is still a reflection of the increase in the volume of commodity exports. In July, the volume of the set of the main commodities exported by Brazil grew 33.1% in relation to July 2019, in contrast to non-commodities with a drop of 11.3%. The difference is also expressive when comparing the accumulated result for the year, an increase of 15.2% in commodities and a decrease of 18.2% in non-commodities.

Ibre pointed out that, as was emphasized in the last Icomex newsletters, China’s importance in the Brazilian agenda has been growing and driven by the increase in the volume of commodities exported. After the 51.4% growth between June 2019 and 2020, the exported volume registered a 55% variation in the interannual comparison of July.

China is the main market for seven of the top ten products exported by Brazil in July. The main ones remain soybeans, iron ore and oil, with 79% of Brazilian exports to this market. Other products have also registered an increase in exports, such as beef, with an increase of 160%, and pork, an increase of 158%.

Extractive industry

From July 2019 to July 2020, the extractive industry recorded an increase in exports of 37.7%, its best result in the year, driven by the increase in the exported volume of oil. The volume exported from the manufacturing industry was 2.5% higher, after months of contraction.

Icomex also pointed out that the volumes exported from the manufacturing industry decreased both in the monthly comparison, and in the accumulated result for the year until July, except for non-durable goods, where the commodities of this industry are present. The volume of non-durable goods exported rose 26.1% in the monthly comparison and 18.9%, in the accumulated in the year.

 

Source: Agência Brasil

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08.24.2020

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