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Brazil should take advantage of G20 to profit from war between China and US, says economist

Economic growth, protectionism and trade tensions lead to the G20 meeting. Jair Bolsonaro arrived here Thursday (27) in Osaka, Japan, to attend the summit. Soon after landing, the Brazilian president said that Brazil does not have a “side” in the commercial war between the United States and China. The two largest world economic powers find themselves in a reciprocal stalemate of tension and imposition of tariffs and trade sanctions on export products.

The issue is that, with trade disagreement between the powers, Brazil has turboiled Brazilian exports to China at US $ 8.1 billion, according to a survey released by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) in May. Domestic sales increased from US $ 22.589 billion in 2017 to US $ 30.706 billion last year.

In the midst of the commercial war, according to Carlo Barbieri, an economist and Brazilian political analyst, settled in the United States 30 years ago, Brazil can take advantage bilaterally, increasing its export capacity for both countries. “We have seen a great commercial opportunity for Brazil to have greater participation in these markets, especially in the United States. The country has the ideal conditions to occupy the center of this dispute and win with it, “says Barbieri.

In the short term, Brazil experienced positive effects of trade tension. “In the case of China, Brazil has been able to enter markets such as beef, orange juice and Brazil nuts, in addition to benefiting soy. In the case of the United States, besides the products that Brazil already exports, we have the factor of geographical proximity, favoring ideal conditions “, ponders the specialist.

BILATERIAL ENCOUNTERS

On Friday, Bolsonaro will meet with President Donald Trump – the second meeting in less than three months, as Bolsonaro was received at the White House in the United States in March this year. In addition to the US head of state, there will be bilateral meetings with Emmanuel Macron of France and Xi Jinping of China with Prime Ministers Narendra Modi of India and Lee Hsien-Loong of Singapore.

One of the most expected meetings will be held this Saturday (29). Bolsonaro will meet with Xi Jinping, president of China, and the expectation of specialists is that the economy is the main agenda of the conversation. China is Brazil’s main economic partner. Among the destinations of Brazilian exports, in January of this year, the Asian country led with an increase in participation compared to January 2018, from 18.3% to 20.9% of the market share.

“We hope Brazil can strengthen its relations with China and change the current scenario of Brazilian exports to the Asian country. Today, Brazil’s largest share is with commodities. Exporting high added value products would be much more interesting for the Brazilian economy, “explains the economist.

TRANSFER OF CONFIDENCE

This year, for the first time, Brazil was ranked A.T. Kearney, of countries that should attract foreign investment in the world. In the survey, Brazil was not among the 25 most reliable countries to receive investments. Barbieri explains that “the Brazilian economy is not transmitting security for foreign investment. So investments are often punctual and short-term. This results in speculative capital with high variation and instability. This situation needs to be resolved as soon as possible. “

Since 1998 – when A.T. Kearney began to make this ranking – the country had never been out of the top 25. Solid markets, such as the United States and Germany, were top of the 2019 ranking.

“The G20 is an opportunity to reposition Brazil in the foreign market and regain confidence abroad. We will have to make the most of the bilateral meetings to review some points that may favor both sides, but that mainly reflect in Brazil positioning it as a attractive nation for new foreign investments, “analyzes Barbieri.

Source: Comex do Brasil

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07.02.2019

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